(The implication being that perhaps these numbers are heavily biased by usage, offensive line play, or scheme.). However, let's consider this: Gibbs has been just as efficient on the ground as the projected RB3 in this class: Some narratives on the street are:"Zach Charbonnet is a guaranteed bell cow from Day 1""Jahmyr Gibbs is only average as a runner, won't be an every-down back. But given what happened to the rest of the RB class during the draft, Miller moved up one spot to RB3 in my 2023 dynasty rookie running back rankings. Christian McCaffrey, 2015 (13.2)4. Brown also caught 27 passes in his final season at Illinois, so he could step into three-down duties if needed. But The Ringers Danny Kelly definitely deserves the award for the best pro-Achane argument. So, I have a hard time imagining Charbonnet can be a player you feel comfortable starting for fantasy in any given week (so long as Walker stays healthy). He led all RBs in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.38) and yards after contact per attempt (4.72). And this all matches up with what youll see on tape Achane plays bigger than his size, is unafraid of contact, is freakishly fast, and possesses legitimately rare big-play ability. And then he more or less bombed his Pro Day. Although McIntosh never dominated the backfield in terms of touches, thats also true for just about every Georgia RB even the ones with Day 1-2 draft capital. He leads the class in explosive play per touch rate (0.19). Cnd ncepe meciul, vei putea urmri scorul live, clasamente, rezultate live actualizate ale lui CS Gloria 2018 Bistria-Nsud vs CS Lotus Bile Felix minut cu minut i statisticile meciului. 71), joining the New Orleans Saints, who have Alvin Kamara facing a possible suspension, is declining in his efficiency, and has an out in his contract after this season, paving the way for a runaway RB1 role. No, I'm a California resident looking for the California Consumer Privacy Act form. Impressively, he hit 95 rushing yards in 17 of his final 18 career games, averaging an absurd 149.4 rushing YPG and 7.55 YPC over this span. Tulane improbably improved from 2-10 to 12-2, finishing the season as the No. In other words, if I had ranked a running back like Hines or Mattison well below consensus, my model wouldn't necessarily consider it a miss. And I believe that's accurate. They were second in EPA/rush and third in success rate while being first in downs/rush and TDs/rush. The fortified system rpd, which bears the name of the former Hungarian dynasty set up during World War II, mainly by the Hungarian horthist, stretched for more than 600 kilometers, one third . And given what I think of Robinson (the best RB prospect since at least Saquon Barkley), 107 touches feels like a major coup Im not sure any other RB in this class would be able to manage much more than that playing behind Robinson. Here is the deal. Christian McCaffrey, 2015 (43.7%)2. We are here to help you #ScoreMore Fantasy Points! Please remember these or any. I know this may seem like I hate him, but I truly dont. 250 career carries). But of course, Robinsons rushing prowess is only part of the equation. Johnsons draft capital wasnt great, falling to Round 4 (the only RB selected in Round 4) as the 8th RB off the board. Ill let the NFL tell me exactly how highly we should value him for fantasy. Zach Charbonnet beat out Miller in terms of draft capital, but Millers landing spot was significantly better. Derek Brown shares his dynasty rookie position rankings below. I get it. The team didnt seem to miss him at all, improving from 5-7 to 13-2 with a National Championship appearance. Apparently, they were comfortable taking him at No. You saw it. But in this disaster of a landing spot, he remains my RB5. making him the no-brainer top pick in 2023 rookie drafts. Free 2024 NFL Mock Draft Simulator (With Trades), Dynasty Fantasy Football Startup Draft Strategies, 2023 NFL Draft Fantasy Football Winners and Losers. Kyle Dvorchak is a writer for NBC Sports Edge and half of the other sites on the internet. Valladay was a three-year starter at Wyoming before transferring to Arizona State. In other words, I really kind of love this landing spot, even with David Montgomery there. 9) Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals Miller never really did much throughout his first two seasons at TCU, playing (slightly) behind Zach Evans, before Evans transferred. There are some big misses here, but McBride is also near or at the top of this list by every predictive rushing metric we have. In a heartwarming moment on Day 3, Cowboys scout Chris Vaughn called his son Deuce to tell him the Cowboys were drafting him. Weighing all of this together and acknowledging the fact that upside is more valuable than downside is detrimental Gibbs is absolutely well deserving of RB2 status, and a mid-Round 1 pick in superflex rookie drafts. He ranks 2nd-best in yards after contact per attempt (4.54), which also ranks 3rd-best by any RB (min. 9 team in the AP Bowl following a Cotton Bowl win over USC the Green Waves first top-25 finish since 1998. At his Pro Day, he posted a 24th percentile vertical jump, 15th percentile broad jump, and a 1st percentile 3-Cone (weight-adjusted or not). Had his 7.69 3-Cone come at the Combine, it would rank tied for 2nd-worst (weight-adjusted or not) of 365 qualifiers since 2000. His landing spot, Tennessee, will allow him to flourish as a receiver out of the backfield quickly. The Commanders had a 3rd-round grade on RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., per sources. But hes somewhat lacking in terms of agility 36th percentile in the shuttle and 35th percentile in the 3-Cone. LaDainian Tomlinson, 2000 (2.85) 3. 222 overall. I find it hard to envision Charbonnet as an NFL bell-cow RB, because this isnt NFL-starting-caliber rushing efficiency. His bell-cow usage in 2022 was somewhat inspiring, but his per-touch efficiency metrics werent quite good enough to suggest he posseses realistic bell-cow potential at the NFL level. The match is a part of the Liga III Seria 10 - Championship Round. But in Johnsons case, this is fairly understandable. Height: 60, Weight: 210 lbs, 40-yard-dash: 4.56, Combine SPORQ: 37.1, Pro-Day SPORQ: 81.4, Former: 4-star, Age: 21.7, Draft Capital: RB7, Round 3, pick No. 13) Zach Evans, Los Angeles Rams Brad Holmes almost breaks the table in excitement as he and Dan Campbell are glad to draft the versatile, explosive Jahmyr Gibbs #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/51bsgVqsMb. This altogether paints the picture of a prototypical one-cut-and-go RB, which is exactly what youd see from Abanikanda if you watched his tape. And well, damn Yeah, its hard to pass up the Tyreek Hill of RBs in rookie drafts. 2023 fantasy football rookie rankings - Wide Receivers. It viewed his career-best 107 touches (2021 and 2022) as a major red flag. By: David Dorey. Remember, targets are worth roughly 2.5 times as much as a carry in PRR leagues. If youre going to be slow and small, you better be agile and shifty. Ultimately, this pick appears to be an abject disaster for both RBs. At wide receiver, the list is very familiar with the likes of Justin Jefferson , Ja'Marr Chase and CeeDee Lamb leading the positional charge. Among all 20 qualifying Power 5 RBs in this class, he ranks 4th-worst by missed tackles forced per attempt and 2nd-worst by career yards after contact per attempt (2nd-worst). For perspective, those numbers would have ranked 9th- and 8th-best last season. Unfortunately, after a disastrous performance at the Combine and then his Pro Day, I find this argument a little less compelling. But he was an elite tackle-breaking machine on those touches. Had this article been written several months ago, I might have felt compelled to craft a fairly persuasive bull-case argument in his favor. These backs were selected anywhere from the second round to the fourth round of the NFL Draft. Spiller, and Reggie Bush. 8 overall by the Atlanta Falcons. A workhorse for UCLA over the past two years, Charbonnet carried the ball 398 times for 2,511 rushing yards and 27 touchdowns. Travis Etienne (4.51)2. Now reports of full thickness cartilage loss (end stage arthritis) which would explain why his knee is not unstable with his ACL tear. Rodriguezs rushing efficiency metrics were legitimately elite in 2022. Ultimately, my model didnt really love him, and neither do I. But truthfully, this feels like overanalysis because Im skeptical Smith will even be with the team next season. Bijan to the MOON @BGWhitefield pic.twitter.com/N6plQnpXxH. We all were but he was you know, very enthused [starts laughing]". Chris Rodriguez, 2022 (8.5)3. My model liked all that. So, I was pretty surprised by how much my model seemed to like him. Rather, McIntosh did dominate high-value touches. But digging deeper, its easy to see why. In fact, Bigsby ranked worst in the class by this latter stat. However, even in that case, it's still advisable to wait and acquire them at a more reasonable price in a year or two rather than to overpay today. A.J. Hunter also comes out well above Bigsby by adjusted-YPC average. Mock Drafts Prospect Rankings 2023 Dynasty Fantasy Football RB Rankings: Changing of the guard, led by Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker Updated Dynasty running back rankings for 2023. Updated 2023 PPR Rankings. He could be in line to handle some dirty work and goal line carries for Jacksonville. In this article, I will rank the top rookie running backs for your dynasty fantasy football rookie drafts. On those carries, he averaged only 1.5 yards per carry, the lowest rate in the class. Fantasy Football Dynasty Rankings Explained 2023 Dynasty Rookie Running Back Sleepers Methodology. Unlike with Alabamas Najee Harris, he rarely benefited from positive gamescript. Per Go Longs Bob McGinn, "According to several team sources, [Spears] doesnt have an ACL in one of his knees after a pair of surgeries. Yards From Scrimmage%+All Power 5 RBs, Since 20151. Hes one of the youngest RBs in this class still over one month away from his 21st birthday. He may or may not have run Evans the highest-ranked recruit in TCU history out of town. (Granted, Haskins is 1.0 years older and a Round 4 NFL draft pick.) (Thats all we have to go on, but of course a major caveat is that Robinson was recovering from being shot in August, so he might not have been 100% all year. Thats especially true when it comes to dynasty, which never sleeps! But in his defense, at least he was dominant against the best team he faced, scoring 4 TDs and gaining 219 YFS on 18 touches against USC in the Cotton Bowl. And then, at his Pro Day, Vaughn ran the 40-yard dash in 4.56 seconds, good for a 2nd percentile Speed Score (82.8). But thats true for just about all Day 3 RBs, so his draft capital disadvantage (relative to names like Eric Gray and Evan Hull) isnt all that significant to me. Detroit has a top-three offensive line, and Gibbs has the upside to quickly become the RB3 in dynasty with Robinson and Breece Hall, especially with DAndre Swift quickly traded to the Philadelphia Eagles, leaving Gibbs to work with David Montgomery. There are hardly any exciting landing spots, and the bell cow running back seems to be a dying breed, thanks to a historically great free agency class and the deepest RB class in recent memory. For these reasons lack of suitable landing spots, lack of true bell cows its hard to get overly excited about this class, with the exception of Bijan Robinson, who appears to be the last of the true bell cows, and Jahmyr Gibbs, who could be the next Austin Ekeler with only a little bit of luck. . Not only is Robinson an elite rusher and a technician with his footwork, but hes also a plus receiver out of the backfield and will see time split out of the backfield at the NFL level. 15) Deuce Vaughn, Dallas Cowboys But even then, the math doesnt quite add up Seattle RBs average 21.2 carries per game since 2018. By career yards after contact per attempt, he ranks behind only Travis Etienne since 2014. Height: 510, Weight: 209 lbs, 40-yard-dash: N/A, Draft Capital: RB16, Round 7, pick No. All NCAA Seasons (since 2016), where RB averaged >6.5 YPC and >11.5 YPR Tyjae Spears, 2022 TreVeyon Henderson, 2021 Javonte Williams, 2020 Travis Etienne, 2019 Tony Pollard, 2018 Elijah Mitchell, 2018 Darwin Thompson, 2018 Joe Mixon, 2016 Curtis Samuel, 2016. Defenses cant account for his speed until its too late. Height: 511, Weight: 215 lbs, 40-yard-dash: N/A, Draft Capital: RB4, Round 3, pick No. 84 overall. However, third-round draft capital suggests he could evolve into a larger role while also serving as the obvious handcuff to Travis Etienne. But unlike some others, at least Spears was hyper-efficient leading up to his bell cow year. Roschon Johnson could be the Bears' Week 1 starter if he blows up in camp. Ultimately, I feel pretty agnostic about Johnson. This puts him in the same bucket as Israel Abanikanda, only his YPC average wasnt anywhere near as impressive. 200 carries), those numbers rank 5th-best and 4th-best, respectively. MORE: 2023 NFL Draft Fantasy Football Winners and Losers. Jonathan Taylor, 2018 (40.2%)5. 350 career carries1. Its clear Detroit loves him, and you can see it in the video from their draft room. Last season, and among all 21 RBs from this class with at least 150 touches, Gray ranked just 10th in missed tackled forced per touch (0.28) and only 12th in yards after contact per attempt (3.43). Robinson landed in a great spot and is going to absolutely crush it in the NFL. While a lot of casual players stick to re-draft leagues, there are more and more dynasty leagues every year where owners keep their players year after year. But all attempts to control for that still have Hunter well ahead. Apparently, the NFL disliked Evans even more than I did, as he was selected as just the 15th RB off the board. And in 2022, he forced 104 missed tackles. This led some well-connected names (such as ProFootballNetworks Tony Pauline) to speculate that Tucker would likely go undrafted as NFL teams struggled to determine whether or not Tucker would even be allowed to play professional football. And my two favorite NFL Draft pundits have suggested theres quite a bit more upside with Achane than weve given him credit for. In most cases, non-bell cow RBs early-down workhorse RBs, scatbacks, change-of-pace options, handcuffs, or backups do little more than eat up valuable roster space. Well, it looks like Seattle liked Charbonnet a lot more than I did, selecting him in Round 2 as the 3rd RB off the board. Are we sure we arent getting Punkd here? But its definitely possible Im wrong. He averaged an impressive 6.31 yards per carry across his two years with the Bruins. Height: 58.5, Weight: 188 lbs, 40-yard-dash: 4.32, Draft Capital: RB6, Round 3, pick No. Javonte Williams (4.26)5. With that size comes natural power, which Miller has no issue handing out. And, at least, Im not the only one who thinks so. Rodriguez is the prototypical wrecking-ball RB who gets better as the game goes on. And he may or may not have fled Michigan for Los Angeles because he couldnt see playing time stuck behind Hassan Haskins. Hes missed at least one game in each of his past 5 seasons. Robinson has Round 3 draft capital on his side, although that doesnt really give him a major edge on Rodriguez, if Nicki Jhabvalas report is true. expert consensus dynasty rookie rankings here, Post-Round 1 Dynasty Superflex Rookie Mock Draft, No, I'm a California resident looking for the California Consumer Privacy Act form. 75 career targets), behind only Travis Etienne (10.9). Jahmyr Gibbs, 2021 (14.1)2. Pro Football Network passionately delivers purposeful, captivating, and exceptional football content. Of the names below him on this list, only David Montgomery (3.94) and Najee Harris (3.86) are still on an NFL roster. Were writing after the Combine and then his Pro Day. Or is he destined to become the next Reggie Bush, C.J. Abanikanda didnt lead his team in touches until last season, and he wasnt even the teams lead back in Week 1 Rodney Hammond out-touched him 18 to 9, before suffering an injury which would cause him to miss the teams next five games. Maybe. In nine career seasons as an NCAA head coach, Chip Kelly has coaxed hyper-productive seasons from a number of RBs, although few have found success at the NFL level. Hell be Cam Akers handcuff and may possibly offer a little more upside beyond that through the first 10 weeks last season, Darrell Henderson handled 49% of the teams backfield XFP. I have a deeper breakdown of the running back class in my pre-draft dynasty rankings. And wildly less efficient when first contact came beyond the line of scrimmage (8.5 YPC vs. 4.9). Travis Etienne, 2019 (12.7), Top NCAA RB Seasons by YPRR (2014-2022) + Power 5-only, min. So, thats your glimmer of hope if you want it theres a very-extremely, teeny-tiny, impossibly-small chance hes the next Darren Sproles, if you like scouting helmets in addition to profiles. This service is intended for adult audiences. Height: 60, Weight: 217 lbs, 40-yard-dash: 4.51*, Draft Capital: RB13, Round 6, pick No. But theres a little more mystery to Achane than that especially given the contact-related metrics we cited earlier. However, they are also the lifeblood of fantasy football, as they get guaranteed touches from week to week. 20) Mohamed Ibrahim, Detroit Lions. Miller and Achane could both be committee leads in their rookie season, depending on how their depth charts shake out. 2023 RB Dynasty Rookie Rankings | FantasyPros Fantasy Football Rookies Rankings (2023) Consensus of 45 Experts (54 available) - May 15, 2023 Pick Experts Scoring PPR View Ranks. Combine all these points, and you can see why my more basic model really liked him. His numbers were insane. But to leave us with a glimmer of hope, he did pop in a number of other slightly-less-important efficiency metrics. Do Not Sell My Personal Information. Bigsby was also less efficient than Hunter when first contact was initiated at or before the line of scrimmage (2.7 YPC vs. 1.6). 115 overall. In a best-case scenario, hes Austin Ekeler. Robinson graduated from high school as Arizonas all-time leader in rushing yards (7,036) and touchdowns (114) and ranked as the No. And that feels like pretty soft competition to me. His jack-of-all-trades profile could make him an interesting backup to Dameon Pierce. As much as everyone hated DAndre Swift last year, his role really wasnt all that terrible. And, by just about every metric we have especially the predictive ones McIntosh was legitimately elite as a receiver. Furthermore, there are concerns about Gibbs' usage that exacerbate his volume concerns. Its possible Pederson just doesnt like Etienne Bigsby actually profiles as closer to the archetypal Pederson workhorse (plodders like Jordan Howard, LeGarrette Blount, Ryan Mathews, Jay Ajayi). In his final season, he hit 1,192 yards and 16 touchdowns on the ground while also catching 37 passes. Somehow, McBride took his game up another notch in the following season, averaging 19.4 carries, 142.8 rushing yards, and 1.58 rushing touchdowns per game. And he has some cartilage damage as well.". McIntoshs draft capital was terrible, and the landing spot is pretty unideal as well Im assuming McIntosh is now the favorite for the Travis Homer/ DeeJay Dallas pass-catching role, which (historically) has been fairly worthless. Analysis: None of these running backs received higher than fifth-round draft capital, but their skillsets and raw talent make them awesome darts to toss in rookie drafts. But I do question his upside and his bell-cow potential due to unideal size, lack of passing game usage in college, and the fact that he may or may not be missing a freaking ACL in one of his knees. DISCLAIMER: This site and the products offered are for entertainment purposes only, and there is no gambling offered on this site. And yes, Etienne is great, but hes not a bellcow(JaMycal Hasty should be rostered in more than 27% of dynasty leagues)pic.twitter.com/0rz6BqqDDb. Theres a smoothness in the way Gibbs runs the ball. With reports that Dalvin Cook could still be moved at any minute, McBrides only competition for touches would be Alexander Mattison, Kene Nwangwu (22 career carries), and Ty Chandler (6 career carries). Jahmyr Gibbs, 2021 (3.03)3. Rodriguezs draft capital was pretty bad (Round 6), but the landing spot was pretty terrific. Remember, Swift was fourth in fantasy points per touch last season, with Jamaal Williams scoring 17 touchdowns because he has 70 targets. Chris Grier on Mike McDaniel's love for Devon Achane:"We spent some time with him and got to know him as a person and we watched film and then probably 2-3 weeks ago Mike was convicted in his love for the player. Per Dane Bruglers The Beast: Overall, Achanes undersized build understandably creates doubt about him as an every-down NFL back, but his vision and rare acceleration allow him to access run paths most backs cant. It never feels good to bet on a player being an outlier ex ante. One of the biggest risers through the draft was Auburn's Tank Bigsby. And his 6.81 career YPC average ranks 20th best by any FBS RB since at least 2000. His contact balance and vision are also strengths and helped him record a missed tackle on 31.2% of his carries (67). Bigsby also flashed some serious bell-cow potential last season (in spite of his 25th percentile BMI), actually leading the team in receptions (although he wasnt at all efficient in that area). Bijan Robinson, Texas Age: 21.2 Size: 5'11/215 For my money, Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley are the only prospects better than Robinson over the past decade. All rankings have been updated to account for both draft capital and landing spot. (That said, Evans ranks ahead of him with 6.89. 85 carries). My model penalized him for that decision but still really liked him his efficiency metrics are about as good as any non-Power 5 RB weve seen in a decade. Height: 60, Weight: 219 lbs, 40-yard-dash: 4.58, Draft Capital: RB8, Round 4, pick No. By our favorite stat career missed tackles forced per touch Johnson not only beats Robinson, but he ranks best of any Power 5 RB since at least 2014: NCAA RB Leaders by Missed Tackles Forced/Touch+min. Of all the complaints we have about the running back, of which there are many, there was one which received the perfect landing spot. I just see it as Charbonnet being overdrafted. The two new names on my top-20 are Lew Nichols andXazavian Valladay. I could envision him skyrocketing up my rankings in the right landing spot (ideally Denver or Miami) or falling in my rankings just about anywhere else. Christian McCaffrey, 2016 (40.0%)6. XFP/G RB Leaders (2022)1 All Detroit RBs Combined (28.3)2 Austin Ekeler (19.9)3 Christian McCaffrey (18.7)3 Joe Mixon (18.7)5 Josh Jacobs (17.7)8 Jonathan Taylor (15.6)Give Jahmyr Gibbs__% of the backfield and he's55% = Taylor66% = CMC70% = Ekeler 90% = God. McBrides rushing metrics appear elite, but so did Ito Smiths (also in the C-USA). Gray is your Saquon Barkley handcuff, with minimal long-term upside. On this list of 111 names, Abanikanda does rank 4th-best in YPC average (5.92) which may imply some outlier potential, although he was also two spots below Wendell Smallwood (6.37). I get Carroll wants to establish the run, and some of Kenneth Walker IIIs metrics werent great. Ultimately, Miller still isnt quite a player Im excited to take in rookie drafts (unless RB-needy), but he is my dynasty RB3 in this class. By depth-adjusted YPT over expectation, his 2022 season (-31%) ranks 15th-worst of 255 qualifying seasons since 2014. However, because draft capital and landing spots are crucial for running backs, this article is being published post-Draft. Priest Holmes was also famously buried behind Ricky Williams, also at Texas, before later becoming an NFL fantasy superstar (26.5 FPG from 2001-2003). And in this case, the landing spot is pretty good. Drinking water treatment. Dillon (67.0)7. Bijan Robinson (0.387). 150 carries) in missed tackles forced per touch (0.34) and 5th-best in yards after contact per attempt (4.16). Robinson also averages 10.4 YPT in his career the 2nd-most by any RB since 2016 (min. Instead, I suspect he lacks the necessary elusiveness to earn starter reps at the NFL level. His average of 6.09 yards after contact per attempt ranks as the best mark of any Power 5 RB since at least 2014 (min. 2023 Dynasty Fantasy Football NFL Rookie Running Back Rankings 1. and he was also probably aided by scheme. Among all instances of a Power 5 RB carrying the ball 175 or more times since 2014, those numbers rank (respectively) 7th-best and 26th-best. Beyond our fantasy football content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you prepare for your draft this season. Ezekiel Elliot - 0.375. I saw it. Spears is a high-upside handcuff to Derrick Henry, who could inherit the backfield if the team moves on from him after this season. https://t.co/t5eTqyYq4Y. Charbonnet could be a league winner if anything happened to Ken Walker. Mohamed Ibrahim, 2020 (41.4%)4. Seattle? He played QB all throughout his high school career he was the No. And these numbers dont appear influenced by a few relatively long runs skewing our sample Hunter had only one carry gain 50 or more yards over the past two seasons (to Bigsbys 2). So, thats the bull-case argument if you want it. Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons What is there left to say about Bijan? As a preview of what is to come, here are my current 2023 dynasty rookie RB rankings following the 2023 NFL Draft. And he also dominated NFL-worthy competition one month later at the Senior Bowl. But even with that being the case, theres still some upside for Brown as a handcuff in the two games Mixon missed last year, Samaje Perine averaged 19.0 carries and 7.0 targets per game. Through 12 games, Gray averaged 17.8 carries, 2.8 receptions, and 132.9 YFS per game. Since 1995, there have only been ten instances where running backs who were sub-190 pounds ran for over 1,000 yards in a season. But even if he doesnt hit the magical 1,000-yard threshold, Achane is a leverage changer and has other ways he can produce while providing quality fantasy production. But his numbers were also far less impressive when looking at any of these numbers on a per-touch basis either last year or if over the full scope of his career. He leads the class in career explosive run rate (21.3%), and among all Power 5 RBs in this class ranks 2nd-best in career yards after contact per attempt (4.20). Foreman was signed to a one-year, $2M prove-it deal. 15. 88 overall. The 2023 NFL Draft is now over, which means fans can start looking forward to fantasy football. But it always feels a little suboptimal to bet on a player being an outlier. 2023, 13:00:01 UTC n Liga III Seria 10. And when looking at his collegiate career in its totality, his analytics profile appears incredibly underwhelming. And instead, I began to side more with the NFL Mock Draft Cognoscenti that, Ehhh Hes probably not much more than a scatback at the next level.. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, please call 1-800-GAMBLER. Miami re-signed Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. this offseason on one-year deals, but I dont see that stopping Achane from impacting right away. At 511 and 215 pounds, Miller hits all of the historical benchmarks for what RB size works in the NFL. In 2022, after Spiller left, Achane saw a significant increase in usage, out-touching the next-closest Aggie RB by 204. 35 career receptions). 215 overall. While Gibbs' size is definitely not ideal, it doesn't necessarily mean he will be pigeonholed into a committee role, as players like Ekeler, Bush, LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles, Brian Westbrook, and Christian McCaffrey were all within 3 pounds of Gibbs' weight. Last season Montgomery averaged 13.0 carries and 2.6 targets per game to Herberts 10.1 and 0.8. NFL Networks Tom Pelissero stated the Lions wouldve been comfortable taking him at No. And thats pretty well correlated with 40-yard-dash time, alongside a few other traits that translate well to the pros. Atlanta running backs last year were first in yards, yards per carry, and rushing first downs. Below are my dynasty rookie running back rankings following the 2023 NFL Draft. Montgomery and McBride are the only RBs with multiple seasons within the top-7 by either metric. Prospect Rankings Dynasty Fantasy Football: 2023 Rookie rankings, risers and fallers, and key Draft takeaways Here's how the Dynasty landscape changed after the 2023 NFL Draft By. Since 2018, Seattle RB collectively average 21.2 carries per game. 1 - RB Bijan Robinson . Among all 20-qualifying Power 5 RBs in this class, he ranks 4th-best in career rushing missed tackles forced per attempt (0.31) and 6th-best in career yards after contact per attempt (3.83). Over the next two seasons, Robinson would dominate as a bell cow, averaging 20.6 carries, 2.0 receptions, 150.7 yards from scrimmage (YFS), and 1.6 touchdowns per game. And, keep in mind, that number is also above WRs like Jordan Addison (10.1), Josh Downs (9.2), and Zay Flowers (8.8). Not only that, Seattle then drafted Kenny McIntosh in the seventh round, which will only take away potential targets for Charbonnet or Walker because, at that point, why the hell not? Arizona State RBsXazavien Valladay (2022): 252 touches, 1,481 yards from scrimamge, 18TDsRachaad White (2021): 225 touches, 1,456 YFS, 16 TDsValladay is projected to go undrafted. CS Lotus Bile Felix is going head to head with CS Gloria 2018 Bistria-Nsud starting on 12 May 2023 at 15:00 UTC . And the only names above him on either list are Bijan Robinson, Javonte Williams, Roschon Johnson, and Darrell Henderson. The publish date is provided for each expert to give you an idea of how fresh their rankings are. So, he may have been thrust into a workhorse role in part due to Hammonds poor injury luck. Charbonnet could be a league winner if anything happened to Ken Walker. In his defense, he does profile as an exceptional pass-catcher he has 48 career receptions coming from the slot (over twice as much as the next-closest Power 5 RB from this class). Take away the two games he missed due to injury, and Walker averaged 16.4 PPR points per game. 35 targets, since 2014, Power 5-only 1. So, I do think Abanikanda immediately supplants both RBs as the clear RB2. Indeed, that landing spot just made way too much sense. Post-Draft Note: It seems the lack of an ACL didnt scare Tennessee too badly, and maybe we shouldnt be too scared either Steelers legend Hines Ward played his entire career without an ACL. This yielded an impressive 72.8 SPORQ Score, and gave us Nyheim Hines, Reggie Bush, and Austin Ekeler as his closest athletic comparisons. But, fortunately, it was not. McBride was a 3-star prospect coming out of high school, who opted to remain close to home at UAB, eschewing offers from several Power 5 programs. 41 overall) wasnt much better than that of Charbonnet (No. 14) Chris Rodriguez Jr., Washington Commanders 34), and got Gibbs at 12.. 52 overall), but not me. DraftKings Week 8 USFL DFS Tournament Plays, upside is more valuable than downside is detrimental, somewhat high on White in this space last year, 2023 Fantasy Strength of Schedule: Tight Ends, 2023 Fantasy Strength of Schedule: Wide Receivers, 2023 Fantasy Strength of Schedule: Running Backs, 2023 Fantasy Strength of Schedule: Quarterbacks. Alvin Kamara, 2016 (2.39), Career Yards per Route Run+All projected top-55 players in this class 1 Jaxon Smith-Njigba (3.32)2 Quentin Johnston (2.71)3 Jordan Addison (2.64)4 Josh Downs (2.50)5 Jahmyr Gibbs (2.47)*6 Jalin Hyatt (2.44)7 Dalton Kincaid (2.32)8 Zay Flowers (2.16)9 Michael Mayer, All Power 5 players to average >51 rushing YPG and >38 receiving YPG in their NCAA career (since 2006):+ Percy Harvin+ Jahmyr Gibbs/end of list. Reconciling both points, he was advantaged by elite run blocking throughout his career, and especially last year UCLA ranked 2nd-best of all 64 Power 5 teams in PFF run blocking grade. Dalvin Cook (69.3)6. I think Miller is immediately the favorite to win over the Mark Ingram role in this offense, and the days of Alvin Kamara receiving 70-plus percent of the teams snaps are long gone. 19) Xazavian Valladay, Houston Texans Over the last two seasons, Robinson has earned a position-best 8 deep targets, well above Jahmyr Gibbs 0 and only 1 shy of Stanford WR Michael Wilson over the same span. Ozone technologies & advanced oxidation. 300 career carries). But over the same span, Kendre Miller averaged 8.20 YPC. Even if his landing spot is supposedly unideal, I have a hard time imagining that changes anything hes a guaranteed bell cow from Day 1, who is great as both a runner and receiver, so things like backfield competition, offensive line play, and projected gamescript dont really matter all that much to me. To me, hes just a poor mans Tevin Coleman. Jahmyr Gibbs, 2021 (+79%) 2. Alvin Kamara will probably lead the team in fantasy points, but theres still quite a bit of upside for Miller in both the short and long term. The big question with Gibbs, and a crucial one for fantasy is: can he ever come close to matching an Austin Ekeler, Alvin Kamara, or Christian McCaffrey in rushing volume? Michael Fabiano. I have a deeper breakdown of the running back class in my pre-draft dynasty rankings. So, it didnt at all matter to me that Bigsby was more efficient by yards after contact per attempt in 2022 (but not 2021). Travis Etienne, 2019 (+77%) 3. Vaughn absolutely smashed in a number of key metrics that my model really cares about. Or at least not quite as much as consensus. But, to be fair, it was a helluva fourth year. But he was able to pick his own team. In Evans defense, my model thinks Miller is really good, and Judkins does rank as Fantasy Points own Devy RB3. Deuce Vaughn, 2021 (2.51), Since 2015, there are only four Power-5 RBs to average at least 100.0 rushing YPG and 35.0 receiving YPG in a single season:- Christian McCaffrey (2015)- Dalvin Cook (2016)- Joe Mixon (2016)- Deuce Vaughn (2021), Top NCAA RB Seasons by YPRR (2014-2022)+ Power 5-only, min. Right now, Im seeing this as a similar situation to Austin Ekeler in 2019, who split carries with Melvin Gordon but dominated targets, and managed to finish the season as the overall RB4 in PRR leagues. He could easily roll up 250-300 touches in his rookie season. Although, that one game in which he missed our benchmark came against his lone Power 5 opponent over this stretch when he posted a modest 13/34/1 rushing line (2.62 YPC) against LSU. You don't currently have any notifications. And, ultimately, that just matters more. At tight end, I've . And although he was middling in most key metrics, his 2022 season was actually pretty impressive, ranking 5th-best among all Power 5 RBs (min. In fantasy, you want immediate contributors and high-end fantasy producers at the RB position, or you want no RBs at all. New York Jets RB Depth Chart: Will Michael Carter, Zonovan Knight, or Israel Abanikanda Back Up Breece Hall? I think what happened here is Pete Carroll is an old-school HC who values the RB position more than just about anyone else in football. Ultimately, hes another player Ill like more than the NFL Mock Draft Cognoscenti but yet another RB Im not going to be very excited to draft. Scott Barrett combines a unique background in philosophy and investing alongside a lifelong love of football and spreadsheets to serve as FantasyPoints Director of Analytics and Lead DFS Writer. But in Evans case, its also a little bit scarier than that. He averaged 19.6 carries, 3.6 receptions, and 129.8 YFS per game. So, maybe Achane does possess PPR-cheat-code upside similar to that of Sproles and Bush. That ranks 11th-most by any Power 5 RB since at least 2000 (min. So, maybe hes the next Josh Jacobs who was similarly elite by missed tackles forced per touch, but who also couldnt separate from a crowded backfield at Alabama (a backfield that includes NFL RBs Damien Harris, Najee Harris, and Brian Robinson, all with Day-2-or-better draft capital.) However, the Bears have a quarterback who will steal goal line carries and won't funnel targets to his running backs. Analysis: Bijian Robinson is a three-down workhorse from Day 1. As it stands, Tucker will be competing for touches with only Rachaad White, KeShawn Vaughn, Chase Edmonds, and Patrick Laird. Over Breece Halls last three healthy games, Michael Carter averaged 8.3 carries and 2.0 targets per game (to Halls 18.3 and 3.3). However, with Gibbs, teams will be more willing to overlook this point and keep him on the field due to his highest-end receiving abilities. These metrics help to divorce offensive line play from the equation and credit a player with yards they created on their own. He accounted for an absurd 38% of his teams total YFS, which led all RBs in this class. Abanikandas pass-catching profile is a little suspect. 1 RB in the 2020 recruiting class. This year's rookie class is loaded . Gibbs surprisingly went in the first round of the NFL Draft, and while consensus might not agree with Detroit selecting Gibbs 12th overall, he should, at his baseline, be a Swift clone with the upside for more. I kept Charbonnet here because of his profile and knowing what he can be in the NFL, but Id be completely lying to you if I said I knew how this was going to play out. Some of his efficiency metrics were really good although he was about average in missed tackles forced per touch but those numbers all look a lot less impressive in comparison to his teammates. And my athletic model (SPORQ Score) says athleticism is fairly irrelevant for scatbacks Theo Riddick, Jacquizz Rodgers, Tarik Cohen, Andre Ellington, and Darren Sproles were all in the sub-25th percentile by SPORQ Score, while James White, Dion Lewis, and Brian Westbrook were sub-33rd percentile. Henry is 29 years old with 1,567 touches over the last five seasons. CS Lotus Bile Felix played against CS Gloria 2018 Bistria-Nsud in 5 matches this season. And my model has a serious bias against small-school RBs, as do I. Spears efficiency metrics look incredible, but a little less so when factoring in that these numbers came against lesser competition. And although his 6.97 YPC average ranks behind LaMichael James 2011, that number also ranks 17th-best by any Power 5 RB since 2000 (min. We know the landing spots, how much draft capital these rookies received, and what their path on their team's depth charts will be. He was gifted workhorse usage the following year, and remained absurdly hyper-efficient. Travis Etienne - 0.452. And at least Johnson clearly was. But I still like him quite a bit more than many of the RBs likely to be drafted ahead of him. This altogether yielded a true death-knell-equivalent SPORQ Score of 0.4. One could argue there is some upside for him as receiver, given that Bijan Robinson, Deuce Vaughn, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Evan Hull are the only other RBs in this class to have hit 250 receiving yards in each of the last two seasons. And he ranks behind only Montgomery in total missed tackles forced per season (77.3). Deuce Vaughn, 2020 (+65%) 6. 12 overall pick. 172 overall. And Bigsbys numbers here are fairly unique its incredibly strange to see a RB who is actually more efficient against stacked boxes. Robinson was hand-picked by the most run-heavy play-caller in football Arthur Smiths Falcons led the NFL in rushing attempts last year (559) in spite of their 7-10 record. Among all 21-qualifying Power 5 RBs from this class, Achane ranks 2nd-best in explosive play per touch rate (17.1%) and 5th-best in yards after contact per attempt (3.93). He was dominant by our favorite stat, but on only a small sample of touches. Instead, Evans goes to Ole Miss, where he was more or less neglected behind only a 3-star 18-year-old true freshman Judkins had 130 more carries, 3 more receptions, 650 more YFS, and 7 more touchdowns.. 7) Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans Tucker did eventually earn medical clearance and had his Pro Day a few days before the draft, but decided not to run the 40-yard dash, which my model views as a damning red flag. 237 overall. And Derek Brown, Pat Fitzmaurice, Andrew Erickson, and Matthew Freedman check in to provide you with their 2023 fantasy football dynasty rookie rankings. Id guess thats what Abanikandas usage will look like in a best-case scenario should Hall stay healthy. 2023 Dynasty Rookie RB Rankings: Devon Achane, Kendre Miller Rising After the NFL Draft Matt Duckworth May 31, 2023 Dynasty Bijan Robinson, Chase Brown, Devon Achane, Dynasty, Jahmyr Gibbs, Kendre Miller, Roschon Johnson, Running Back Rankings, Tank Bigsby, Tyjae Spears, Zach Charbonnet, Zach Evans Achane measured out as a perfectly average athlete for me (50.1 SPORQ), but his athletic profile is a lot more complicated than that. It liked his teammate-adjusted efficiency. And besides, he wasnt handpicked by new OC Eric Bienemy like Rodriguez was. Gibbs did measure in a bit smaller at 59 and 199 pounds, but with a 4.36 40 time and a 33.5 vert, hes as dynamic as it gets. It wouldnt surprise me if Tennessee actually seriously finally attempted to scale back Henrys usage and force Spears into the gameplan. This is the same article I've written yearly Barrett's Rookie Model: Running Back Rankings ( 2022, 2021 ). And he never dominated touches, which implies capped usage at the next level, as does his 9th-percentile BMI. 150 routes 1. He. To be clear, Millers profile shows a player who wasnt really elite anywhere but was great everywhere (well, minus in the passing game). And perfect enough for him to rank as my RB4 in this class. But all it did was limit the fantasy ceiling for two incredibly talented running backs. And he was significantly more efficient than all other Pittsburgh RBs over the last two seasons (5.71 YPC vs. 4.78). And even if I try to adjust for the fact that my model may have (but truthfully I dont think it does*) a blindspot for this style of runner, I still didnt really love him. As a 19.1-year-old true freshman with the Blazers, McBride averaged an obscene 9.34 YPC on 47 carries. His career YPC average of 7.28 ranks 9th-best among all RBs since at least 2000 (min. Although Spears never saw much volume as a receiver, he was at least hyper-efficient in that area. Dynasty Rankings 2023 NFL Rookie Fantasy Rankings: Running Back by Kyle Dvorchak April 1, 2023, 9:11 am ET Updated On: April 2, 2023, 1:23 am ET 1. Really? Mike Clay's fantasy football rookie rankings for 2023. . Beyond our fantasy football content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of, as you prepare for your draft this season. This video of the phone call from Cowboys assistant director of college scouting Chris Vaughn to his son - Kansas State RB Deuce Vaughn - when the team picked him today is so awesome. His 4.32 40-yard dash was the 3rd-fastest time ever recorded by a RB at the Combine. 193 overall. Spears draft capital was good selected as the 5th RB off the board, although only several picks ahead of Devon Achane and Tank Bigbsy but the landing spot was pretty terrible, getting stuck behind Derrick Henry in Tennessee. Chase Brown was my RB12 heading into the draft, but landing behind Joe Mixon, who is in a precarious legal and cap situation, gives him plenty of upside. Athletically, Rodriguez offers prototypical workhorse size (73rd percentile BMI), underwhelming explosion (sub-30th percentile in the jumps), and underrated speed (4.51 40-yard dash). The 2023 NFL Draft has come and gone, and there's never a better time than now to brush up on your dynasty rookie knowledge. And then of course, Abanikanda will offer more upside beyond that if Halls recovery timeline is delayed, or if he suffers another injury. Factor in his pass-catching upside, and he looks like the best overall fantasy RB prospect since Saquon Barkley yes, above Jonathan Taylor, who averaged only 9.9 receiving YPG at Wisconsin. Perhaps some of the lesser-tier running backs in this class could earn an RB1 workload a few years down the road, especially as established stars like Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Austin Ekeler, Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry, Aaron Jones, Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook, and Alvin Kamara near the age-cliff or the wear-and-tear cliff. And, well, Abanikanda advocates really should hope that thats the case. 12 overall pick a place he was never expected to go. Height: 55, Weight: 179 lbs, 40-yard-dash: 4.56*, Draft Capital: RB14, Round 6, pick No. Javonte Williams - 0.384. And Gibbs handled just 3 of the team's 16 RB carries when Alabama was inside the 5-yard line. A physical runner, Bigsby can beat defenders with brute force or through impressive footwork. Its been Bijan Robinson for the last three years, and that will not change now. My model liked that, but didnt really love that hes an older player, and a fifth-year senior who never really did much until that fifth year. To further complicate matters, Tucker wasnt medically cleared to participate in the Combine, due to an unspecified medical issue. So, Bigsbys Round 3 draft capital doesnt mean all that much to me. After the rankings, I have a detailed breakdown of the biggest risers and fallers through the draft. 12) Evan Hull, Indianapolis Colts Since entering the league, Jamaal Williams ranks 12th-worst of 54-qualifying RBs in YPC average (3.99). By Tommy Garrett May 1, 2023 | 8:30 PM EDT Miller is also incredibly light on his feet and has an arsenal of weapons. Kyle Dvorchak is a writer for NBC Sports Edge and half of the other sites on the internet. He averages 6.68 YPC throughout his career, which ranks 20th-best among all Power 5 RBs since 2000 (min. Fantasy never stops. Still, Charbonnets 168.0 yards from scrimmage per game in 2022 does lead all Chip Kelly-coached RBs. 52 overall, Charbonnets box score numbers were incredibly impressive in 2022, although he still underwhelmed in most key (predictive) efficiency metrics. I dont think anyone can question that. But the Chicago landing spot was pretty terrific, or at least one of the least bad of among all rookie RBs. White the heavy favorite for bell-cow duties ranked 5th-worst of 50-qualifying RBs by rushing yards over expectation per carry. I am all in. Please note that we have no control over how frequently the experts update their rankings. But Charbonnet's profile and considerable draft capital were enough to hold onto the No. On the other hand, that usage suggests that (for whatever reason) Chicago may not trust the former Round-6 pick with more volume. To be fair, this is more of a critique of Zach Charbonnet than it is praise of Gibbs. My dynasty rookie position ranks will be posted throughout the week with analysis on the biggest movers as a result of the draft. Unfortunately, its also pretty hard to make that argument based solely on his analytics profile.
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