Therefore, we will explore the impact of COVID-19 vaccines on disease transmission when data are available in the future. Coccia M. COVID-19 pandemic over 2020 (with lockdowns) and 2021 (with vaccinations): similar effects for seasonality and environmental factors. Then, the impact of contact, quarantine and test rates are analyzed based on five different scenarios. Feikin D, Higdon M, Abu-Raddad L, et al. To compare countries, it is insightful to look at the number of confirmed cases per million people this is what the chart shows. See the authorsfull descriptionof how this index is calculated. NUR-SULTAN On Jan. 18, Kazakh Minister of Healthcare Azhar Giniyat reported that COVID-19 cases have increased by 19.6 times over the past month. Article 5, Table 4). The data on the coronavirus pandemic is updated daily. Keep in mind that in countries that do very little testing the actual number of cases can be much higher than the number of confirmed cases shown here. The start times for stage II were set as March 12, March 15, March 21, and March 24 and compared with the baseline of March 18 for Kazakhstan; April 23, April 26, May 2 and May 5 were compared with the baseline of April 29 for Pakistan (Fig. This chart shows thenumber of confirmed COVID-19 cases per day. The reported case figures on a given date do not necessarily show the number of new cases on that day this is due to delays in reporting. COVID-19 Incidence Declines in Kazakhstan, Omicron Variant Not Detected By Assel Satubaldina in Nation on 13 December 2021 NUR-SULTAN - The COVID-19 incidence rate has declined 28 percent over the past two weeks in Kazakhstan, said Kazakh Healthcare Minister at a government meeting last week. The epidemiological situation in Kazakhstan is stable, he said. This study was supported by the Alliance of International Science Organizations (Grant No. Brandal L, MacDonald E, Veneti L, et al. This is shown as the seven-day rolling average. In red countries the death count has increased. Google Scholar. Association of public health interventions with the epidemiology of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China. In 2020, the total population of Xinjiang, Kazakhstan and Pakistan was 25.89 million, 18.78 million and 220.89 million, respectively, according to the United Nations Statistics Division (data.un.org) and the National Bureau of Statistics of China (http://www.stats.gov.cn/). Article The index on any given day is calculated as the mean score of nine policy measures, each taking a value between 0 and 100. 2022;13:4738. Lancet. Infectious Diseases of Poverty If more datasets about COVID-19 in Kazakhstan and Pakistan become available, a comprehensive analysis will be provided in our future study. According to preliminary data compared to other types of coronavirus infection, the Omicron variant is more contagious than the Delta, affects mostly people aged 20-30 years, and there is also the risk of reinfection, said Shoranov noting that the epidemiological situation in Kazakhstan remains stable. Earlier the Minister stressed there is no need to impose mask mandate despite a hike in confirmed COVID-19 cases as all the regions of Kazakhstan remain in the low COVID-19 risk area. 4, Table 3). The number of confirmed cases is lower than the true number of infections this is due to limited testing. QC, ZH, SL and BH contributed to the draft writing-reviewing-editing. Yasobnat S, Tadv R, Patel K, et al. For example, prediction of the daily new data is different from the real-world data with low CC values, which may be caused by the short time period compared to the more than nine months in the simulated period (Table 2). By Staff Report in Nation on 19 January 2022. Now, we have to use the limited data to investigate COVID-19 transmission and predict the future tendencies using the dynamic model. Turkistan is the only region in the yellow zone. Here we show the share of reported tests returning a positive result known as the positive rate. Sign up via the website or subscribe to our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Telegram and Tiktok! Pulliam J, Schalkwyk C, Govender N, et al. Licenses: All visualizations, data, and articles produced by Our World in Data are open access under the Creative Commons BY license. Moreover, we explore the scenario results of COVID-19 variations with the control and prediction measurements at different time points. 2020;9:462. The New Year holidays and recent events in Kazakhstan undoubtedly had an impact on the increase in the incidence rates. 2021;41:572632. Since the beginning of the mass vaccination effort in February, 95 percent of subsequent coronavirus patients were not vaccinated. By Assel Satubaldina in Nation on 30 December 2021. The DISO equation is provided as follows. What is the cumulative number of confirmed deaths? Nature. PubMed How do the cumulative number of confirmed deaths and cases compare? All other material, including data produced by third parties and made available by Our World in Data, is subject to the license terms from the original third-party authors. To investigate the impact of the different contact rates on COVID-19 transmission from the perspective of daily new confirmed cases, we set four scenarios: 0.8c3, 0.9c3, 1.1c3 and 1.2c3, which were used in comparisons with the baseline (c3).The smaller contact rates are shown to reduce the peak values of the daily new confirmed cases and increase the corresponding time points, and larger contract rates resulted in larger peak values and delayed corresponding time points for both countries (Fig. Genetic sequencing is conducted monthly. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. Terms and Conditions, Your privacy choices/Manage cookies we use in the preference centre. KAZINFORM Stealth Omicron accounts for 80% of all coronavirus cases confirmed in Kazakhstan since the beginning of the year, Kazinform reports. Photo credit: nn-airport.kz. For the two LMICs, Kazakhstan and Pakistan, stronger control and prevention measures can be more effective in combating COVID-19. This scatter chart provides another way of seeing the extent of testing relative to the scale of the outbreak in different countries. 2022;607:3515. Flaxman S, Mishra S, Gandy A, et al. 2022;18:100360. Help us do this work by making a donation. Article In this study, the dynamic variations in COVID-19 transmission with the omicron variant in Kazakhstan and Pakistan are explored with a dynamic disease model (2.1) derived by differential equations. You can switch the chart to a logarithmic axis by clicking on LOG. After the pandemic: perspectives on the future trajectory of COVID-19. The dynamic model established by ordinary differential equations has high performance in simulating and predicting COVID-19 transmission in the two countries, including multiple wave variations. Ge Y, Zhang W, Wu X. Untangling the changing impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on European COVID-19 trajectories. Which world regions have the most daily confirmed deaths? Telenti A, Arvin A, Corey L, et al. In the future, population movements and vaccines will be included in our model if these data become available. Moreover, it is very difficult to obtain specific vaccination data about the two countries. S2a). Industrial and Innovation policy of Kazakhstan, New childrens hospital opens in Karaganda, HIV cases doubled in Kazakhstan for past 10 years, Mets issue storm alert for 13 regions of Kazakhstan, Kazakhstani President visits Keruen-Medicus clinics new building, Astana to hold some 600 events on the occasion of State Symbols Day, Nurken Sharibayev named first vice minister of ecology and natural resources of Kazakhstan, Louvre Abu Dhabi reunites historic ornamental pillars for first time, Kazakhstan appoints vice minister of ecology and natural resources, Japan to boost child care spending to match Sweden, US House passes debt ceiling bill, averting crisis, 1 killed, 5 injured by billboard collapse as massive sandstorm hits Egypt's capital, Kazakhstan's Foreign Ministry and UNICEF held event for children. Google Scholar. Chinazzi M, Davis J, Ajelli M, et al. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40249-023-01072-5, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s40249-023-01072-5. Kiyasov said that an armed group of protesters attacked some hospitals and workers, destroyed ambulances during recent events in the country. Microbiol Res. Zhou Q, Chen D, Hu Z. Decompositions of Taylor diagram and DISO performance criteria. The overall performance is evaluated by the distance between indices of simulation and observation (DISO), which is based on the Euclidean distance and flexible determination of statistical metrics and their numbers from the Da Dao Zhi Jian concept [24,25,26]. Tang B, Wang X, Li Q, et al. 2020;584:4204. Nat Commun. 2022;375:140611. 2020;95:23140. Nature. 4). Current knowledge about Omicron Researchers in South Africa and around the world are conducting studies to better understand many aspects of Omicron and will continue to share the findings of these studies as they become available. Part of Jalali N, Brustad H, Frigessi A. Chaos Solitons Fract. Sign up via the website or subscribe to our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Telegram and Tiktok! Scenario results of the different quarantine rates for daily new COVID-19 cases in Kazakhstan (a) and Pakistan (b). Evaluation and prediction of the COVID-19 variations at different input population and quarantine strategies, a case study in Guangdong province, China. For all global data sources on the pandemic, daily data does not necessarily refer to the number of new confirmed cases on that day but to the casesreportedon that day. When the start time was delayed, it had a delayed minimum contact rate and a delayed maximum quarantine rate, which would cause more infection. It shows the Government Stringency Index a composite measure of the strictness of policy responses. Lancet. Cui Z, Cai M, Xiao Y, et al. The details of the model construction are provided in Fig. Int J Infect Dis. Dynamic variations in COVID-19 with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Kazakhstan and Pakistan, $$\left\{\begin{array}{c}{S}^{^{\prime}}=-\beta c\left(t\right)\frac{S}{N}I-\left(1-\beta \right)c\left(t\right)q\left(t\right)\frac{S}{N}I+\mu {S}_{q}+b\left(1-p\right)Q, \\ {E}^{^{\prime}}=\beta c\left(t\right)\left(1-q\left(t\right)\right)\frac{S}{N}I-\delta E,\\ {I}^{^{\prime}}=\delta E-\tau \left(t\right)I-{\gamma }_{I}I-{d}_{I}I,\\ {{S}_{q}}^{^{\prime}}=\left(1-\beta \right)c\left(t\right)q\left(t\right)\frac{S}{N}I-\mu {S}_{q},\\ {Q}^{^{\prime}}=\beta c\left(t\right)q\left(t\right)\frac{S}{N}I-bQ,\\ {C}^{^{\prime}}=bpQ+\tau \left(t\right)I-{d}_{C}C-{\gamma }_{C}C,\\ {R}^{^{\prime}}={\gamma }_{I}I+{\gamma }_{C}C,\end{array}\right.$$, $$c\left(t\right)=\left\{\begin{array}{c}\left({c}_{0}-{c}_{1}\right){e}^{-{r}_{1}^{c}t}+{c}_{1},\hspace{1em}0\le t<{t}_{0},\\ \left(c\left({t}_{0}\right)-{c}_{2}\right){e}^{-{r}_{2}^{c}\left(t-{t}_{0}\right)}+{c}_{2},\hspace{1em}{t}_{0}\le t<{t}_{1},\\ \left(c\left({t}_{1}\right)-{c}_{3}\right){e}^{-{r}_{3}^{c}\left(t-{t}_{1}\right)}+{c}_{3},\hspace{1em}t\ge {t}_{1},\end{array}\right.$$, $$q\left(t\right)=\left\{\begin{array}{c}\left({q}_{0}-{q}_{1}\right){e}^{-{r}_{1}^{q}t}+{q}_{1},\hspace{1em}0\le t<{t}_{0},\\ \left(q\left({t}_{0}\right)-{q}_{2}\right){e}^{-{r}_{2}^{q}\left(t-{t}_{0}\right)}+{q}_{2},\hspace{1em}{t}_{0}\le t<{t}_{1},\\ \left(q\left({t}_{1}\right)-{q}_{3}\right){e}^{-{r}_{3}^{q}\left(t-{t}_{1}\right)}+{q}_{3},\hspace{1em}t\ge {t}_{1},\end{array}\right.$$, $$\frac{1}{\tau \left(t\right)}=\left\{\begin{array}{c}\left(\frac{1}{{\tau }_{0}}-\frac{1}{{\tau }_{1}}\right){e}^{-{r}_{1}^{\tau }t}+\frac{1}{{\tau }_{1}},\hspace{1em}0\le t<{t}_{0},\\ \left(\frac{1}{\tau \left({t}_{0}\right)}-\frac{1}{{\tau }_{2}}\right){e}^{-{r}_{2}^{\tau }\left(t-{t}_{0}\right)}+\frac{1}{{\tau }_{2}},\hspace{1em}{t}_{0}\le t<{t}_{1},\\ \left(\frac{1}{\tau \left({t}_{1}\right)}-\frac{1}{{\tau }_{3}}\right){e}^{-{r}_{3}^{\tau }\left(t-{t}_{1}\right)}+\frac{1}{{\tau }_{3}}\hspace{1em}t\ge {t}_{1}.\end{array}\right.$$, $$DISO=\sqrt{{\left(CC-1\right)}^{2}+NA{E}^{2}+NRMS{E}^{2}}$$, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40249-023-01072-5, https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019, https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants, http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/, Containment and case management of COVID-19 pandemic. As of Dec. 2, Kazakhstan reported 973,045 coronavirus cases and 82,734 coronavirus pneumonia cases. 2022;208: 112711. The Alpha variant of concern (B.1.1.7) was detected in September 2020 in the United Kingdom, Beta (B.1.351) in May 2020 in South Africa, Gamma (P.1) in November 2020 in Brazil and Delta (B.1.617.2) in October 2020 in India [5] (https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants). 2022;2:8. Therefore, timely, accurate, and comprehensive estimates of the daily new confirmed cases and cumulative confirmed cases are essential for understanding the determinants of past infection, current transmission patterns, and future infection variations. Environ Res. KAZINFORM Stealth Omicron accounts for 80% of all coronavirus cases confirmed in Kazakhstan since the beginning of the year, Kazinform reports. Protection of COVID-19 vaccination and previous infection against Omicron BA.1, BA.2 and Delta SARS-CoV-2 infections. Each new variant has demonstrated this in waves. free for everyone to use for all purposes, the COVID-19 death count in more populous countries tends to be higher, our page about the mortality risk of COVID-19, Oxford Coronavirus Government Response Tracker, our visualization for the population of Iceland and the US. 2022;2:9. The total vaccination coverage stands at 75.1 percent. The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and the Omicron variant presents a Daily laboratory testing has increased by 3.5 times and reached 50,000 tests per day. More information about these aspects of disease transmission in the two countries is needed and can help establish a more accurate model. The cumulative confirmed cases stood at more than 1.5 million on October 14, 2022 (Additional file 1: Fig. 2022;11:17. The impact of the start times of stage III on the disease are contradictory to those of stage II. 2020;369:3159. Among other things he mentioned how the recent events of the tragic January affected the work of the medics. 2 and 3. And the second map shows the percentage change (growth rate) over this period: blue are all those countries in which the death count in the last two weeks was lower than in the two weeks before. It is important to achieve the required level of herd immunity to prevent the appearance and spread of new strains. How do daily tests and daily new confirmed cases compare when not adjusted for population? In Kazakhstan, the first cases of COVID-19 were reported on March 13, 2020, and the first cases of the Omicron strain were detected on January 6, 2022. For example, model (2.1) can be improved from the aspects of social distance, vaccination and mask use in the two countries. Almost 3 years into the pandemic, several COVID-19 vaccines have received emergency use listing or authorization by regulatory authorities and the World Health Organization based on the vaccine efficacy results from randomized controlled trials [36,37,38,39]. The death figures on a given date do not necessarily show the number of new deaths on that day, but the deaths. 2020;13:84955. Water, sanitation and hygiene from One Health perspective. Daily confirmed cases: how do they compare to other countries? COVID-19 is also a zoonosis that may correlate with climate factors and wild animals [45, 47]. To enable comparisons across countries it is expressed per million people of the population. Dynamical variations of the global COVID-19 pandemic based on a SEICR disease model: a new approach of Yi Hua Jie Mu. As of 20 January 2022, the Omicron variant had been discovered in 171 nations throughout the world, and it may spread faster than other variants due to its mutations [9]. Article Wang X, Yin G, Hu Z, et al. All of our charts can be embedded in any site. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. A disease dynamic model was applied, the population was segmented, and three time stages for Omicron transmission were established: the initial outbreak, a period of stabilization, and a second outbreak. Kissler S, Tedijanto C, Goldstein E. Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period. In general, disease dynamic models constructed by ordinary differential equations or partial differential equations have a high ability to describe transmission features and forecast future changes. PubMedGoogle Scholar. 2022;399:92444. How many people have completed the initial vaccination protocol? For all global data sources on the pandemic, daily data does not necessarily refer to deaths on that day but to the deathsreportedon that day. Increased household transmission and immune escape of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron compared to Delta variants. Since the first Omicron case was detected in Norway on 30 November 2021, it has been continuously observed in many countries, such as South Africa on 15 November 2021 [7, 8], the United States on 1 December 2021 and England in January 2022 [9, 10]. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. Nature. One Health Bull. What is important to note about these case figures? Photo credit: The press service of Nur-Sultan city administration. At the baseline 3, the peak values and the corresponding time points of Kazakhstan and Pakistan were the same as the baselines of c3 and q3. Hao X, Cheng X, Wu D. Reconstruction of the full transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Wuhan. GeoHealth. Infect Dis Poverty 12, 18 (2023). For instance, if 1,000 people died in Iceland, out of a population of about 340,000, that would have a far bigger impact than the same number dying in the United States, with its population of 331 million.1 This difference in impact is clear when comparing deaths per million people of each countrys population in this example it would be roughly 3 deaths/million people in the US compared to a staggering 2,941 deaths/million people in Iceland. Cui Q, Hu Z, Han J, et al. Cumulative confirmed cases: how do they compare to other countries? 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Moreover, we considered three major factors that affected the COVID-19 variants behavior, including contact frequency, quarantine situation and disease testing requirements, which changed with time. Goga A, Bekker L, Garrett N. Breakthrough SARSCoV-2 infections during periods of delta and omicron predominance, South Africa. 7, Table 5). Omicron variant: current insights and future directions. Since reporting can vary significantly from day to day irrespectively of any actual variation of cases it is helpful to look at a longer time span that is less affected by the daily variation in reporting. The Omicron variant was first identified by South Africa The new coronavirus variant Omicron is spreading across the globe at an unprecedented rate, the World Health Organization (WHO) has. If a person receives the first dose of a 2-dose vaccine, this metric goes up by 1. Moreover, with these same magnitudes, the timely application of control and prevention strategies plays a key role in disease transmission based on the different start time points of Stage II and Stage III. The New Year holidays and recent events in Kazakhstan undoubtedly had an impact on the increase in the incidence rates. Omicron has now spread to more than 20 countries, including the United States., Germany, Saudi Arabia, and Australia, but the World Health Organization said these restrictions place a heavy burden on lives and livelihoods.. All passengers including vaccinated ones arriving to Kazakhstan from the foreign countries should provide a negative PCR test (no more than 72 hours should pass from the day of collection of biomaterials till the moment of arriving to Kazakhstan). We want everyone to build on top of our work and therefore we always make all our data available for download. The chart here shows how governmental response has changed over time. Bontempi E. A global assessment of COVID-19 diffusion based on a single indicator: some considerations about air pollution and COVID-19 spread. We took all measures to ensure timely medical assistance to people. The officials also warn that the restrictions could extend to other venues, including banks and post services if the omicron variant is confirmed in the country. Omicron". How many COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered in total? Compared with the present measures (baseline), decreasing (increasing) the contact rates or increasing (decreasing) the quarantined rates can reduce (increase) the peak values of daily new cases and forward (delay) the peak value times (decreasing 842 and forward 2days for Kazakhstan). NUR-SULTAN Kazakhstan will tighten travel rules for international arrivals from Dec. 3 over the concerns of a new Omicron variant, First Vice Healthcare Minister Marat Shoranov told a government meeting on Tuesday. Cheng S, Chen X, Yuan W, et al. China (Grant No. If a person receives the first dose of a 2-dose vaccine, this metric stays the same. How many vaccine doses are administered each day (not population adjusted)? For example, when the contact rate was decreased to 0.8c3, the peak values were 2714 for Kazakhstan and 831 for Pakistan with the corresponding time points of July 27, 2022 and July 6, 2022; when the contact rate was increased to 1.2c3, the peak values were 4111 for Kazakhstan and 1744 for Pakistan with the corresponding time points of August 1, 2022 and July 20, 2022 (Fig. Several large events have been cancelled or postponed, with three NFL matches delayed after outbreaks. 6 with four scenarios of 0.83, 0.93, 1.13 and 1.23. Your US state privacy rights, Please consult our full legal disclaimer. This may not equal the share with a complete initial protocol if the vaccine requires two doses. NUR-SULTAN. Andeweg S, Gier B, Eggink D, et al. Zinsstag J, Utzinger J, Probst-Hensch N, et al. Learn what we know about the mortality risk of COVID-19 and explore the data used to calculate it. Zhang Z, Yu S. COVID-19 management in Shanghai, China. Taking into account the surge in cases around the world and the omicron variant, it is necessary to increase the rate of vaccination of the population and complete vaccination of the subject population, said Burkitbayev. Click on the Download-tab at the bottom of the chart to download the shown data for all countries in a .csv file. Which world regions have the most cumulative confirmed deaths? Science. In this study, we focus on the forecast variations of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron in two LMICs. The results suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic is driven by seasonality and environmental factors that reduce negative effects in the summer, regardless of control measures and/or vaccination campaigns. The impact of population contact, quarantine and testing on the disease are analyzed in five scenarios to analysis their impacts on the disease. Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative. Kazakhstan has seven ports, including Ahertu Buick, Baktu Jeminay, Alashankou, Horgos, Dulata and Muzart. To understand how governments have responded to the pandemic, we rely on data from the Oxford Coronavirus Government Response Tracker(OxCGRT), which is published and managed by researchers at the Blavatnik School of Government at the University of Oxford. Article When the start times were March 24 and May 5 for Kazakhstan and Pakistan, the peak values of daily new confirmed cases were 277 and 168 for the two countries, respectively, which were fewer than those at the baselines (Fig. For the forecasting of COVID-19 transmissions, in addition to the widely used dynamic models using ordinary differential equations, there are some other models considering the factor impacts on the transmission mechanism [21, 48, 49]. Global vaccinations in comparison: which countries are vaccinating most rapidly? For the control and prevention of COVID-19, NPIs rely on reducing contact between infected and susceptible individuals through mass social distancing, including restrictions on social gatherings, stay-at-home orders, lockdowns, closures of schools and business, travel restrictions, increased testing, active monitoring, contact tracing, and other isolation measures [27,28,29,30,31]. Note that this is counted as a single dose, and may not equal the total number of people vaccinated, depending on the specific dose regime as several available COVID vaccines require multiple doses. Omicron cases detected in Kazakhstan Region January 6, 2022 17:32 Kazakhstan has registered Omicron strain of coronavirus, Report informs, citing the Ministry of Health. 2020;368:395400. In our page on COVID-19 deaths, we provide charts and maps on how the number and change in deaths compare across the world. 2022;2:5. Omnia Ahmed Kazakhstan reported the first 8 cases of the new Omicron variant, the health ministry confirmed on Thursday, according to Sputnik. From 2000 to 2021, there were significant increases in the total import and export volumes of USD1.09 billion per year for China-Kazakhstan and $1.14 billion per year for China-Pakistan. As of March 2, only the North Kazakhstan Region was in the moderate-risk yellow zone, while all other . Subscribe to our Facebook page Kazakhstan omicron variant Alparslan Ozturk The reduced contact rates largely indicate stronger quarantine measures. Science. As of Jan. 14, Nur-Sultan, Almaty, and As of Dec. 2, Kazakhstan reported 973,045 coronavirus cases and 82,734 coronavirus pneumonia cases. 2022;400:26971. For baseline c3, the peak values of Kazakhstan and Pakistan are 3259 and 1108, respectively, with corresponding time points of July 29, 2022, and July 11, 2022. Sacco C, Manso M, Mateo-Urdiales A, et al. Article Because the number of tests is often volatile from day to day, we show the figures as a seven-day rolling average. This chart shows the share of the total population that has received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine. Moreover, we only adjusted the start time points (i.e., t0 and t1) of stage II and stage III and kept the same NPIs and vaccines as the present situation to illustrate the impact of NPIs and vaccines employed at different time points on disease transmission. For the NPIs of Kazakhstan and Pakistan, we chose the contact rate, quarantine rate, and test rate to explore their impact on disease transmission. Kazakhstan and Pakistan were chosen because they share borders with China and could cause problems for China if they are unable to prevent and control the disease. 2, 3). Environ Res. It can also be helpful to think of the positive rate the other way around: How many tests have countries done for each confirmed case in total across the outbreak? For example, with the advantages of COVID-19 data (e.g., hospital and vaccination data), Coccia [22] employed some simple and important statistical models to investigate the comparative analysis of the temporal dynamics and effects of the COVID-19 pandemic between 2020 and 2021 in Italy with different control measures. 2020;368:8608. If they receive the second dose, the metric stays the same. 2020;2:10. During the pandemic, the largest value of the daily new cases is 16442 at January 21, 2022 ( Figure 2a ) and the cumulative confirmed cases are larger than 1.4 million ( Figure 2b ). 2021;5(8):e2021GH000455. By clicking on any country on the map you see the change over time in this country. The study period was from January 6, 2022, to October 14, 2022. In the less than 3 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, disease dynamic models have been applied to explore global and regional disease transmission features [11, 13, 15, 19]. This chart shows the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases per day. People who can prove recent recovery from COVID-19 or provide proof of a full vaccination course (green status in the Ashyq system) are able to access trade malls and karaoke bars. S2a, 3a). CAS However, these studies generally need more datasets to better explain the disease transmission mechanism, such as vaccination data and hospitalization data [22]. To be able to properly monitor and control the spread of the virus, countries with more widespread outbreaks need to do more testing. The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and the Omicron variant presents a formidable challenge for control and prevention worldwide, especially for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Daily confirmed deaths: how do they compare to other countries? The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that Omicron poses a "high infection risk". This is shown as the seven-day rolling average. As of Dec. 30, nearly nine million people of the countrys 19 million population have received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, and 8.5 million people have been fully immunized against the virus. new restrictions amid the spread of Omicron. Differences in the population size between countries are often large, and the COVID-19 death count in more populous countries tends to be higher. BISHKEK, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Central Asian neighbours Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan reported jumps in new COVID-19 cases on Wednesday as both countries said the Omicron variant of the virus was. This chart shows the cumulative number of confirmed cases per million people. In our page on COVID-19 testing, we provide charts and maps on how the number and change in tests compare across the world. Correspondence to The first four SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern were discovered in settings with high infection pressure before vaccines were available. Nature. Environ Res. However, an increase in the test rate has a weak impact on disease transmission, which may be caused by the strong quarantine measures. The country has reported more than 2,000 Omicron cases - Maharashtra, of which Mumbai is the capital, is leading the tally (653), followed by Delhi (464). where NAE and NRMSE are normalized by the averaged values of the observed time series. statement and A moving averages model (MM7) has been used to detect the health policy of full lockdowns and a vast campaign of vaccinations [22]. COVID-19 vaccine strategies must focus on severe disease and global equity. Lancet. To investigate Omicron transmission characteristics, we focused on the simulation and prediction of the stage of the variants spread for the two countries using the dynamic disease model. Malaria elimination measures in Guangdong, China. For example, an exposure risk-based model was established to explore COVID-19 transmission characteristics [21]. Kazakhstan and Pakistan have close relationships with the Xinjiang Autonomous Region, China, in the Silk Belt and along the Silk Road. Int J Climatol. Cookies policy. 2022;13:3106. International arrivals and depatures terminal of Nursultan Nazarbayev international airport in the Kazakh capital. For the different quarantine rates, the four scenario values were 0.8q3, 0.9q3, 1.1q3 and 1.2q3, and the baseline was (q3). We wrote adetailed explaineron what can and can not be said based on current CFR figures. 2022. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100681. Infect Dis Poverty. Disease dynamic models are essentially based on the disease transmission mechanism using mathematical equations (e.g., ordinary differential equations and partial differential equations), which have been widely employed to investigate how disease spreads [16,17,18]. CAS Our model has high performance in simulating COVID-19 transmission in Kazakhstan and Pakistan with high CC values greater than 0.9 and DISO values less than 0.5. 2021;201: 111514. Note that this is counted as a single dose, and may not equal the total number of people vaccinated, depending on the specific dose regime (e.g., people receive multiple doses). The country reports a surge in Omicron cases which is widespread globally since the late 2021. S2b). Air travel to Egypt, which has also confirmed the new variant, will be suspended due to high passenger traffic between the countries. Other studies have investigated the spread characteristics of COVID-19 using time series analysis models [20,21,22]. Effect of specific non-pharmaceutical intervention policies on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the counties of the United States. One Health Bull. Any other country can be added to this chart. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has rapidly spread worldwide over the past 3years, with more than 623 million total confirmed cases and more than 6 million deaths (https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019). When the start time of stage II is 6days, the daily new cases are more than 8 and 5 times the rate for Kazakhstan and Pakistan, respectively (29,573 vs. 3259; 7398 vs. 1108). The Ministry of Healthcare organized an operational headquarters functioning round-the-clock. Pakistan has one, the Khunierab port. The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-9) outbreak. Flowchart of the COVID-19 dynamic model of Kazakhstan and Pakistan. Small differences existed after changing the detection rates for the daily new confirmed cases in both countries, which may have been caused by their weak primary detection abilities. Ebani V. The effects of climate change: spreading of zoonotic arthropod-borne diseases in Europe. Google Scholar. In red countries the case count has increased. . In Pakistan, since the first case was reported on February 26, 2020, there have been at least five waves of COVID-19 with new cases peaking at more than 3000 a day. All the software and code that we write is open source and made available via GitHub under the permissive MIT license. To quantify the models simulation and prediction performance, the correlation coefficient (CC), absolute error (AE) and root mean square error (RMSE) are employed. Chief State Sanitary Doctor Yerlan Kiyasov. Tests conducted vs. confirmed cases [scatterplot], Weekly confirmed cases per million people, Weekly confirmed deaths per million people, How many COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered, How many COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered, What share of the population has received, Daily number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, US state-by-state data: Daily vaccine doses administered, US state-by-state data: Daily vaccine doses administered per 100 people, US state-by-state data: Total vaccine doses administered, US state-by-state data: Total vaccine doses administered per 100 people, Number who have received at least one dose of the vaccine, US state-by-state data: Number who have received at least one dose of the vaccine, US state-by-state data: Share who have received at least one dose of the vaccine, Number who have completed the initial vaccination protocol, US state-by-state data: Number who have completed the initial vaccination protocol, US state-by-state data: Share who have completed the initial vaccination protocol, Global COVID-19 vaccinations in comparison, The scale of testing compared to the scale of the outbreak. Mclntyre P, Aggarwal R, Jani I, et al. KAZINFORM - Chief medical officer of Nur-Sultan Sarkhat Beisenova spoke of the work ongoing to detect the Omicron COVID-19 variant, Kazinform correspondent reports. Global testing in comparison: how is testing changing across the world? Rapid increase in Omicron infections in England during December 2021: REACT-1 study. A rapid increase in COVID-19 was observed following the first reported case of the Omicron variant on December 9, 2021, a faster spread than the other four variants (i.e., Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta), which resulted in the largest number of cases in a day, 8183 on January 29, 2022 (Additional file 1: Fig. How COVID-19 deaths are determined and recorded may differ between countries. What share of the population has receivedat least one doseof the COVID-19 vaccine? Therefore, nearly 3 years into the pandemic, exploring the transmission characteristics and predicting the future COVID-19 variants have received increasing attention with the use of mathematical models, such as disease dynamic models [11,12,13,14,15]. Zengyun Hu or Shizhu Li. Transmission of Omicron (B.1.1.529)-SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern in a designated quarantine hotel for travelers: a challenge of elimination strategy of COVID-19. Science. Click on the picture to see the map. Hu Z, Teng Z, Jiang H. Stability analysis in a class of discrete SIRS epidemic models. To enable comparisons across countries it is expressed per million people of the population. The case fatality rate is the number of confirmed deaths divided by the number of confirmed cases. There you can also compare these responses in countries across the world. Lancet. Cumulative confirmed deaths: how do they compare to other countries? This chart shows the cumulative number of confirmed deaths per million people. Hu Z, Cui Q, Han J, et al. Towards integrated surveillance-response systems for the prevention of future pandemics. Eurosurveillance. Lancet Reg Health West Pac. The immune response to SARS-CoV-2 and variants of concern. Foreign nationals from Botswana, South Africa, Lesotho, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Madagascar, Eswatini, Tanzania, Malawi, and Hong Kong will not be able to visit Kazakhstan, while those arriving from Israel, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, Belgium, United Kingdom, Italy, Germany, Australia, and Canada, would have to present a PCR test result and would be quarantined for 7 days regardless of the test result. When citing this topic page, please also cite the underlying data sources. According to the scenario analysis of different contact rates and quarantine rates, disease transmission can be reduced by decreasing the contact rates and increasing the quarantine rates. NPIs, especially lockdowns, can effectively reduce the reproduction of COVID-19 cases [32,33,34,35]. NUR-SULTAN. S1. If you move both ends of the time-slider to a single point you will see a bar chart for that point in time. The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and the Omicron variant presents a formidable challenge for control and prevention worldwide, especially for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). First, the simulation and prediction of the disease are analyzed. 2021;201: 111529. The case fatality rate is simply the ratio of the two metrics shown in the chart above. Nat Commun. Math Comput Simul. PubMed Central As is well known, all viruses, including SARS-CoV-2, mutate over time, and the resulting variants may differ as to how easily the virus spreads and how severe the disease will be. The smaller quarantine rates in controlling disease transmission suggest that the peak value of daily new confirmed cases will become larger and the corresponding time points will be delayed compared with the baseline condition (Fig. For the baseline q3, the peak values of Kazakhstan and Pakistan were 3259 and 1108, respectively, with corresponding time points of July 29, 2022, and July 11, 2022. You have permission to use, distribute, and reproduce these in any medium, provided the source and authors are credited. ANSO-CR-KP-2021-02), the National Natural Science Foundation of P.R. The simulation CC values of the daily new confirmed cases and the cumulative confirmed cases are higher than 0.9, and the DISO values are smaller than 0.5. However, there are still some differences between our predicted data and the real-world data from September 26, 2022, to October 14, 2022. Environ Res. Hu Z, Chen D, Chen X. CCHZ-DISO: a timely new assessment system for data quality or model performance from Da Dao Zhi Jian. The main results are concluded as follows. J Clin Med. As of Jan. 17, Nur-Sultan, Almaty, and Shymkent cities, Atyrau, Almaty, Akmola, Aktobe, East Kazakhstan, West Kazakhstan, Zhambyl, Mangistau, Karaganda, Kyzylorda, Kostanai, Pavlodar and North Kazakhstan regions are in the red zone. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. Differences in the population size between different countries are often large. 12001305, E1190301), and the Shenzhen science and technology innovations Committee (JCYJ20210324101406019). Hence, taking Kazakhstan and Pakistan as examples, this study aims to explore COVID-19 transmission with the Omicron variant at different contact, quarantine and test rates. We indicate the differences in the chart and explain them in detail in our accompanyingsource descriptions. The chart shows the daily number of tests (vertical axis) against the daily number of new confirmed cases (horizontal axis), both per million people. For Kazakhstan and Pakistan, the vaccination rates are mainly dependent on their low developed economies, which are lower than those of highly developed countries. The following are the specific results (Table 1). QC, ZH, BH, ZS, DY, AZ, ZZ, MS, BG and MY collected and analyzed the data. The difference between confirmed deaths and actual deaths varies by country. The first Omicron case was detected in the US on 1 December and since then numbers have increased by 40%. Biweekly deaths: where are confirmed deaths increasing or falling? The results of the latest research show that Stealth Omicron makes up to 80% of all registered COVID-19 cases, Kazakh Healthcare Minister Azhar Giniyat told on the sidelines of the International Forum of Neurosurgeons in Nur-Sultan. Nat Commun. Get The Astana Times stories sent directly to you! To understand the risks and respond appropriately we would also want to know the mortality risk of COVID-19 the likelihood that someone who is infected with the disease will die from it. volume12, Articlenumber:18 (2023) If they receive the second dose, the metric goes up by 1. As countries around the world struggle to curb the spread of the omicron variant, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warns of a higher transmission rate of the new variant. For example, when the start times were March 12 and April 23 for Kazakhstan and Pakistan, the peak values of daily new confirmed cases were 29,573 and 7398 for the two countries, which were more than 8 and 5 times those at the baselines. Here is a summary of what is currently known. The impact of detection rates on disease transmission are provided in Fig. This provides a clearer picture of where the pandemic is accelerating, staying the same, or reducing.
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